Matchup Predictions — 2025-2026 Season
Expected scoring margin and calibrated win probability for every matchup scored under model version ridge_logistic_v1. Populated when a bracket forecast (see Bracket Forecast) is generated; empty otherwise.
| Team A | Team B | Predicted winner | Expected margin (A) | Win probability (A) | Travel adj. (A−B) | Injury adj. (A) | Injury adj. (B) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | LIU Brooklyn | Arizona | 24.9 | 96.9% | -1.90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Duke | Siena | Duke | 24.7 | 96.8% | 0.60 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Gonzaga | Kennesaw | Gonzaga | 24.4 | 96.7% | -2.00 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Florida | Lehigh | Florida | 24.0 | 96.5% | -2.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Michigan | UMBC | Michigan | 19.9 | 94.1% | -0.29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Houston | Idaho | Houston | 19.2 | 93.5% | -0.86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Purdue | Queens NC | Purdue | 18.6 | 92.9% | -0.17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Iowa St | Tennessee St | Iowa St | 16.3 | 90.6% | 0.16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Illinois | Penn | Illinois | 15.6 | 89.7% | -0.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Connecticut | Furman | Connecticut | 14.0 | 87.6% | -1.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Virginia | Wright St | Virginia | 13.0 | 86.0% | 0.65 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Michigan St | N Dakota St | Michigan St | 12.7 | 85.5% | -1.17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Duke | St John's | Duke | 12.3 | 84.8% | 0.06 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Kansas | Cal Baptist | Kansas | 12.3 | 84.7% | -0.78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Wisconsin | High Point | Wisconsin | 12.1 | 84.3% | -0.34 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Arkansas | Hawaii | Arkansas | 11.7 | 83.6% | -0.47 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Vanderbilt | McNeese St | Vanderbilt | 11.1 | 82.5% | -0.99 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Michigan | Georgia | Michigan | 11.1 | 82.5% | 0.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Duke | Ohio St | Duke | 9.9 | 79.9% | 0.48 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Florida | Clemson | Florida | 9.7 | 79.5% | -1.37 | 0.0 | -3.6 | Details → |
| Arizona | Utah St | Arizona | 9.4 | 78.9% | -0.64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Duke | Michigan St | Duke | 9.1 | 78.1% | -0.74 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Nebraska | Troy | Nebraska | 8.3 | 76.3% | 1.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Ohio St | TCU | Ohio St | 8.1 | 75.7% | -1.42 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Kentucky | Santa Clara | Kentucky | 8.0 | 75.4% | -1.71 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Michigan | Alabama | Michigan | 7.7 | 74.7% | -1.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Duke | Houston | Duke | 7.7 | 74.6% | -0.60 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| UCLA | UCF | UCLA | 7.4 | 73.8% | 1.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Louisville | South Florida | Louisville | 6.8 | 72.1% | -0.78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Alabama | Hofstra | Alabama | 6.7 | 71.9% | -0.80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Tennessee | SMU | Tennessee | 6.3 | 70.9% | -0.34 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| St John's | Northern Iowa | St John's | 5.8 | 69.4% | -2.33 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Florida | Vanderbilt | Florida | 5.7 | 69.1% | 0.16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| St Mary's CA | Texas A&M | St Mary's CA | 5.7 | 69.0% | 0.94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Arizona | Wisconsin | Arizona | 5.1 | 67.4% | -0.90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Lehigh | Prairie View | Lehigh | 5.0 | 66.9% | -0.70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Duke | Michigan | Duke | 4.5 | 65.4% | 0.79 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Vanderbilt | Nebraska | Vanderbilt | 4.5 | 65.4% | -1.21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Texas Tech | Akron | Texas Tech | 4.1 | 64.2% | 0.41 | 2.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Wisconsin | Arkansas | Wisconsin | 3.1 | 61.1% | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Miami FL | Missouri | Miami FL | 2.7 | 59.8% | 0.46 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| North Carolina | VCU | North Carolina | 2.6 | 59.4% | -0.50 | 5.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Michigan | Iowa St | Michigan | 2.6 | 59.4% | -0.43 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Gonzaga | Purdue | Gonzaga | 2.3 | 58.4% | -0.92 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| BYU | Texas | BYU | 2.2 | 58.0% | -0.94 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Michigan St | Connecticut | Michigan St | 1.4 | 55.3% | 0.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Arizona | Gonzaga | Arizona | 1.0 | 54.0% | -0.05 | 0.0 | 3.0 | Details → |
| Michigan | Arizona | Michigan | 0.8 | 53.1% | -1.93 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| St John's | Kansas | St John's | 0.6 | 52.4% | -2.49 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Georgia | St Louis | Georgia | 0.0 | 50.5% | 0.57 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Clemson | Iowa | Clemson | -0.1 | 50.2% | -0.84 | -3.6 | 0.0 | Details → |
| NC State | Texas | Texas | -0.5 | 48.8% | -0.90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Texas Tech | Alabama | Alabama | -1.1 | 46.5% | 0.61 | 2.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Villanova | Utah St | Utah St | -1.1 | 46.5% | 1.23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Tennessee | Virginia | Virginia | -1.3 | 45.9% | -0.49 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Virginia | Iowa St | Iowa St | -1.8 | 44.4% | 0.58 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| North Carolina | Illinois | Illinois | -2.3 | 42.7% | -0.87 | 5.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Howard | UMBC | UMBC | -2.8 | 40.8% | -0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Louisville | Michigan St | Michigan St | -2.8 | 40.8% | 0.53 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Kentucky | Iowa St | Iowa St | -3.0 | 40.1% | 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| St Mary's CA | Houston | Houston | -3.4 | 38.9% | 0.97 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Florida | Houston | Houston | -3.6 | 38.4% | 6.66 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Miami OH | SMU | SMU | -4.1 | 36.7% | -3.19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| UCLA | Connecticut | Connecticut | -4.3 | 36.1% | 2.58 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Illinois | Houston | Houston | -6.6 | 29.0% | 6.71 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| Miami FL | Purdue | Purdue | -7.1 | 27.6% | 0.26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Details → |
| BYU | Gonzaga | Gonzaga | -8.5 | 23.9% | 0.83 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Details → |