Bracket Results — 2025-2026 Season

The tournament as it actually played out, with the model's prediction for each real matchup computed against it. A struck-through name was the model's pick for that game; the name shown above it in its place is who actually won. A box with neither is a correct prediction; a box with no shading at all is a real matchup still awaiting its result.

Scorecard (Deterministic)

This season's realized numbers next to what the model's held-out backtest led us to expect beforehand (334 graded games pooled across its recent prior-season backtests - see Model Validation) - not a guarantee, but the baseline for "is this season in line with how the model typically performs."

See the Data Dictionary for what each of these actually measures - winner accuracy is the simplest ("how many picks were right"), Brier score is the standard scoring rule for a probability forecast (rewards being right AND appropriately confident, not just bold), and margin MAE grades the point-spread call separately from the win/loss pick. "Backtest-expected" is a games-weighted average across the model's held-out prior-season backtests (Model Validation page) - not this season's own training data, so it's a genuine before-the-fact expectation, not hindsight.